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Figures 10-36 and 10-37 show two world models among many others, which were built specifically to investigate five major trends of global concern - accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment. Like every other model, they are imperfect, oversimplified, and unfinished. The horizontal time scale is also vague because the model just indicates the general behavior, the numerical values are not as significant as some critic would like to ascribe. The model uses feedback loop similar to the logistic equation to trace the development of the eight variables as labeled without scales in the diagrams. |
Figure 10-36a World Model, Standard [view large image] |
Figure 10-36b World Model, Controlled [view large image] |
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The 5 main sectors of the "World3" model are illustrated schematically in Figure 10-37. The positive and negative feedback loops are labeled with the '+' and '-' sign respectively. The equations for the sector are in the form : Si(n+2) = Si(n) + [P(n+1) + N(n+1)] dt |
Figure 10-37 World Model Feedback Loops [view large image] |
where Si(n+2) and Si(n) are the value of the sector at time t(n+2) and t(n) respectively, P(n+1) and N(n+1) the rate of positive and negative feedback in between the interval dt = t(n+2) - t(n). The rate equations for each sector is |
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It has been shown that positive feedback loops operating without any constraints generate exponential growth. In the world system two positive feedback loops are dominant now, producing exponential growth of population and of industrial capital. In any stabilized system there must be constraints acting as feedback loops to stop exponential growth. The growth stopping pressures from negative feedback loops are already being felt in many parts of human society. Another response to the problems created by growth would be to weaken the positive feedback loops that are generating the growth. Such solution involves growth-regulating policies, which generates a "better" behavior mode. Figure 10-38a shows a world model with regulating policies to produce an equilibrium state sustainable far into the future. |
Figure 10-38a World Model, Stabilized [view large image] |
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Figure 10-38b World Model Update [view large image] |
the birth rate has become more optimal than predicted (see Figure 10-38b dotted curve, otherwise it is similar to Figure 10-36 but in colour now). The message is the same: we should act sooner. |
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fossil fuels (Figure 10-39a). The perennial sea-ice has been breaking up and shrinking at an alarming rate of about 7% every decade since the 1970s. The images in Figure 10-39b compare the annual sea ice minimum in 1979 and 2003. The same picture also shows satellite images of a big chunk of ice shelf breaking up from the Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic at the end of 2006. |
Figure 10-39a Global Warming |
Figure 10-39b Arctic Ice, Disappearing |
In addition to warming up the atmosphere, we are also guilty of plundering the sea and polluting the land. In view of the threat of global warming, the doomsday clock has been advanced 2 minutes |
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Figure 10-39c CO2 Emission |
Figure 10-39d Man-made Heating [view large image] |
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Figure 10-39e A Warmer World [view large image] |
Geoengineered Safety | Slight Delay | Too Little Too Late | Addicted to Carbon | |
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Scenario | Act now on renewable energies and geoengineering | Delayed action on renewable energies and geoengineering | Emission is cut late in the 21st century | Booming world economy is fuelled by coal and oil |
Population | 9 billion | 8.5 billion | 9.5 billion | 12.5 billion |
Global Energy Use | 8x1020 joules | 1021 joules | 8x1020 joules | 1.75x1021 joules |
CO2 Concentration | 400 ppm, dropping | 500 ppm, stable | 650 ppm, rising | 950 ppm, rising |
Sea Level Rise | 0.26 - 0.55 m | 0.32 - 0.63 m | 0.33 - 0.63 m | 0.45 - 0.82 m |
Temperature Rise | 0.3 - 1.7 oC | 1.1 - 2.6 oC | 1.4 - 3.1 oC | 2.6 - 4.8 oC |
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years later. Other fallen Island societies, such as the one on Eastern Island, all collapsed after the settlers had exhausted the fragile food and timber resources. Deforestation (Figure 10-41) was particularly critical; after the larger trees were harvested, nothing was left to make the seagoing canoes needed for voyaging to other sources of food and material. A common thread in the catastrophic collapse of past civilizations is a tendency to impose self-inflicted environmental degration, and unwise responses to societal |
Figure 10-40 Mayan Civilization [view large image] |
Figure 10-41 Deforestation |
problems such as using war as an instrument to resolve disputes, which mostly involve the sharing of resources - it is mostly about oil in this epoch of civilization. |
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resources is reduced (e.g. by controling population growth) to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably (e.g., by progressive taxation), both of which are unlikely to happen. Figure 10-43 shows the 1918 version of the "Grownth and Decline Cycle" by comparing the cultures of eight ancient civilizations and treating each one as living organism. The same kind of pattern is repeating all over in the modern world. When will they ever learn ? |
Figure 10-42 Income Inequality |
Figure 10-43 Collapse |
Looking for a symptom of collapse ? Just check out this old Chinese saying : "The decay of nation always goes with some unsavory characters" (國之將亡,必有妖孽). |
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Figure 10-44 Evolution of Human Race in Future |
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up with non-Darwinian processes that it has spawned. Our technological prowess threatens to swamp the old ways that evolution works. One view maintains that past record of success gives us good grounds for thinking that coevolution (biological and technological) will continue to lead in desirable directions. A darker view envisions that various mechanical / electronic components will eventually link up together to create a being superseding human kind. Figure 10-45 presents the two views of human-machine coexistence. |
Figure 10-45 Coexistence with machine |
The picture on the left shows a harmonious relationship with robot and human dancing together, while the one on the right portrays a rather intimidating computer system such as the HAL 9000 in "2001: A Space Odyssey". |